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Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations

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  • Laséen, Stefan
  • Svensson, Lars E O

Abstract

This paper specifies a new convenient algorithm to construct policy projections conditional on alternative anticipated policy-rate paths in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, such as Ramses, the Riksbank's main DSGE model. Such projections with anticipated policy-rate paths correspond to situations where the central bank transparently announces that it, conditional on current information, plans to implement a particular policy-rate path and where this announced plan for the policy rate is believed and then anticipated by the private sector. The main idea of the algorithm is to include among the predetermined variables (the 'state' of the economy) the vector of nonzero means of future shocks to a given policy rule that is required to satisfy the given anticipated policy-rate path.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8176.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8176

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Keywords: instrument rules; Optimal monetary policy; optimal policy projections; policy rules;

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References

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  1. Albert Marcet & Ramon Marimon, 2011. "Recursive Contracts," Working Papers 552, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2005. "Monetary policy with judgment: forecast targeting," Working Paper Series 0476, European Central Bank.
  3. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
  4. Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  8. Gary S. Anderson, 2000. "A Systematic Comparison Of Alternative Linear Rational Expectation Model Solution Techniques," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 142, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Gary S. Anderson, 2010. "A reliable and computationally efficient algorithm for imposing the saddle point property in dynamic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Jordi Gali, 2008. "Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?," 2008 Meeting Papers 174, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  15. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy in an operational medium-sized DSGE model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1023, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  17. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
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Cited by:
  1. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
  2. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2013. "Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," CAMA Working Papers 2013-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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