On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave
AbstractIn Part One of this paper we use the harmonic analogy of a musical octave to analyze mathematic ratios of U.S. real GNP. These ratios are generated by bringing together figures for U.S. real GNP over intervals of time – “spreads of years” – as numerator and denominator in a single fraction. Using a range of 7-year to 18-year “spreads,” we find that this approach provides strong evidence that American economic history is composed of four 14-year quarter-cycles within a 56 year circuit in the real GNP of the United States, 1869-2007. These periods correlate closely with analysis by Nickolai Kondratiev and provide a framework for predicting an annual steady state rate of growth for the United States falling between 3.4969% and 3.4995% per year. In Part Two of this paper we provide three postscripts including: (1) correlations / speculations on the political and social consequences of this model, (2) simplification / expansion of the geometries implied and (3) analysis / prediction based upon this approach, as concluded by a brief afterword. These post-script refinements narrow the steady state rate of growth predicted to between 3.4969% and 3.4973% per year correlating closely with the 3.4971% rate for annualized quarterly data calculated for Okun’s Law, 1947-2007. The size and interconnectedness of world economies, and the virtually exact correlations provided herein, suggest that the dates predicted for future crises will see changes which are unexpectedly global, dramatic and fierce.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 37771.
Date of creation: 30 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Real GNP; Golden Mean; Phi; Long Wave; Kondratiev Wave; Global Financial Crisis; Constitutional Law; American Economic History; Revolution; Consolidation; GNP Spiral; Okun’s Law; “The Great Moderation; ” Constitutional Amendments; Steady-state Rate of Growth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- B15 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
- B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
- K19 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Other
- B59 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Other
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
- Solomou,Solomos, 1990. "Phases of Economic Growth, 1850–1973," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521389044.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.