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The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history

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  • Albers, Scott
  • Albers, Andrew L.

Abstract

The Long-Wave theories of Nikolai Kondratiev and others claim to find mathematic waves in economic and other social data which are at present in dispute. Currently the theory is considered outside the scope of mainstream economics under several rationales. Despite the lack of mainstream acceptance, we make a strong case for the existence of long waves in the Real GNP of the United States with a 56 year cycle. Our analysis bypasses many of the issues cited by Long-Wave theory critics and in fact clarifies the mathematical structure of the theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33004.

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Date of creation: 21 Jul 2011
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Publication status: Published in The Middle East Studies Online Journal 6.3(2011): pp. 199-253
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33004

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Keywords: Real GNP; Golden Mean; Fibonacci Series; Arab Spring; Phi; Long Wave; Long Cycle; Kondratiev Wave; Economic Forecasting; Economic Model; Global Financial Crisis; Constitutional Law; American Economic History; Revolution; Consolidation; GNP Spiral; Okun's Law; “The Great Moderation”;

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  1. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  2. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
  3. Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
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Cited by:
  1. Albers, Scott, 2014. "Towards an economic architecture of the rings of Saturn: On the Political Economy Wave, Kaluza’s fifth dimension and an alternative derivation of the Roche Limit," MPRA Paper 55276, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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