The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history
AbstractThe Long-Wave theories of Nikolai Kondratiev and others claim to find mathematic waves in economic and other social data which are at present in dispute. Currently the theory is considered outside the scope of mainstream economics under several rationales. Despite the lack of mainstream acceptance, we make a strong case for the existence of long waves in the Real GNP of the United States with a 56 year cycle. Our analysis bypasses many of the issues cited by Long-Wave theory critics and in fact clarifies the mathematical structure of the theory.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33004.
Date of creation: 21 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in The Middle East Studies Online Journal 6.3(2011): pp. 199-253
Real GNP; Golden Mean; Fibonacci Series; Arab Spring; Phi; Long Wave; Long Cycle; Kondratiev Wave; Economic Forecasting; Economic Model; Global Financial Crisis; Constitutional Law; American Economic History; Revolution; Consolidation; GNP Spiral; Okun's Law; “The Great Moderation”;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
- B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
- C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
- E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
- K19 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Other
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
- E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
- K0 - Law and Economics - - General
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
- E19 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Other
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- B59 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Other
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2011-09-05 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-HIS-2011-09-05 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2011-09-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PKE-2011-09-05 (Post Keynesian Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
- Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.