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Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration

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  • Martorana, Marco Ferdinando
  • Mazza, Isidoro

Abstract

Dynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their scant empirical verification. We develop a learning algorithm based on bounded rationality estimating the pattern of learning process through a two-stage econometric model. The analysis links voting behavior to past choices and economic satisfaction derived from previous period election and state of the economy. This represents a novelty in the literature on voting that assumes given voter preferences. Results show that persistence is positively affected by the combination of income changes and past behavior and by union membership.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29135.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 2010
Date of revision: Jan 2011
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29135

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Keywords: voting; bounded rationality; learning; political accountability;

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  13. Uhrig, S.C. Noah, 2008. "The nature and causes of attrition in the British Household Panel Study," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-05, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
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  16. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
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