Game theoretic models of voter turnout have recently fallen into disrepute because the crucial ingredient of the model, the probability of being pivotal for an individual voter, is infinitesimal in large elections. Moreover such models are plagued by the problem of multiple equilibria. We show that assuming voters to be boundedly rational instead of fullyrational helps to ameliorate both these problems. Modelling the dynamics of voter learning in such a context leads to a unique equilibrium with a high probability, which increases with the number of voters. This inables the derivation of testable implications of the theory: increases in costs of voting affect turnout adversely but there may be persistence of turnoutlevels between elections even though costs and other parameters change. Increase in uncertainty increases turnout while increases in the size of the electorate decrease it, in line with intuitions.
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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number
2002045.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior