Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration
AbstractDynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their scant empirical verification. We develop a learning algorithm based on bounded rationality estimating the pattern of learning process through a two-stage econometric model. The analysis links voting behavior to past choices and economic satisfaction derived from previous period election and state of the economy. This represents a novelty in the literature on voting that assumes given voter preferences. Results show that persistence is positively affected by the combination of income changes and past behavior and by union membership.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Catania, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods in its series DEMQ Working Paper Series with number 2010/6.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2010
Date of revision:
voting; bounded rationality; learning; political accountability;
Other versions of this item:
- Martorana, Marco Ferdinando & Mazza, Isidoro, 2010. "Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration," MPRA Paper 29135, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2011.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2011-05-07 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-CDM-2011-05-07 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-EVO-2011-05-07 (Evolutionary Economics)
- NEP-POL-2011-05-07 (Positive Political Economics)
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