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Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration

  • Martorana, Marco

    ()

    (University of Catania, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods)

  • Mazza, Isidoro

    ()

    (University of Catania, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods)

Dynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their scant empirical verification. We develop a learning algorithm based on bounded rationality estimating the pattern of learning process through a two-stage econometric model. The analysis links voting behavior to past choices and economic satisfaction derived from previous period election and state of the economy. This represents a novelty in the literature on voting that assumes given voter preferences. Results show that persistence is positively affected by the combination of income changes and past behavior and by union membership.

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Paper provided by University of Catania, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods in its series DEMQ Working Paper Series with number 2010/6.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:demqwp:2010_006
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  1. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
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  9. Alan Gerber & Donald Green & Ron Shachar, 2003. "Voting may be habit forming: Evidence from a randomized field experiment," Natural Field Experiments 00251, The Field Experiments Website.
  10. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
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  14. Bendor Jonathan & Mookherjee Dilip & Ray Debraj, 2001. "Reinforcement Learning in Repeated Interaction Games," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-44, March.
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  17. Brian P. Poi, 2004. "From the help desk: Some bootstrapping techniques," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(3), pages 312-328, September.
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