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The nexus between public expenditure and inflation in the Mediterranean countries

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  • Magazzino, Cosimo
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    Abstract

    The aim of this article is to assess the empirical evidence of the nexus between public expenditure and inflation for the Mediterranean countries during the period 1970-2009, using a time-series approach. After a brief introduction, a concise survey of the economic literature on this issue is shown, before discussing the data and introducing some econometric techniques. Stationarity tests reveal, generally, that public expenditure/GDP ratio is a I(1) process, while prices index is a I(2) process. Moreover, we find a long-run relationship between the growth of public expenditure and inflation only for Portugal. Furthermore, Granger causality tests results show a short-run evidence of a directional flow from expenditure to inflation for Cyprus, Malta and Spain; of a bidirectional flow for Italy; and from inflation to public expenditure for France. Some notes on the policy implications of our empirical results conclude the paper.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28493.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28493

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    Keywords: Public expenditure; inflation; time-series; unit root; cointegration; causality; Mediterranean countries;

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