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Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: the EMU experience of Portugal

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  • António Afonso
  • José Carlos Coelho

Abstract

We study the relationship between the government budget balance and the current account balance for Portugal, using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019. On the one hand, the causality tests find a unidirectional relation running from the current account balance to the government budget balance. On the other hand, IV estimations show a bi-directional relationship between these variables, and the existence of a bilateral relationship between the structural components of both balances. Even so, the policy implication is that the use of fiscal policy to correct the external imbalance, especially in an economic crisis, is not substantial, due to the small size of the estimated impact. In addition, with an ARDL model, we find a negative long run relationship between the share of public consumption on GDP and the current account balance. As expected, the variation of real public consumption produces an adverse accumulated response on the current account balance. Finally, the investment rate negatively affects the cyclical component of the current account balance and contributes to the structural improvement of the budget balance.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: the EMU experience of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2021/0182, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01822021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget balance; external balance; current account targeting hypothesis; twin deficits; government consumption; ARDL; causality; VAR; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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