The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?
AbstractThe evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Note: received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001
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Other versions of this item:
- Sylvia KAUFMANN & Johann SCHARLER & Georg WINCKLER, 1999. "The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?," Vienna Economics Papers vie9903, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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