Optimal size of government and economic growth in EU-27
AbstractUsing time-series techniques and panels data, the paper analyses for the EU countries in the period 1970-2009 the existence and shape of the “BARS curve” (Barro, Armey, Rahn, and Scully), connecting the size of Government (measured by the share of public expenditure on GDP) to the rate of economic growth. Individual countries research has been conducted for 12 countries for whom enough time series were available, while panel analysis has been performed both for EU-27 and for subgroups, distinguished by their different socio-economic and monetary structures, and per capita GDP. BARS curves were generally found, and the shares of actual public expenditures generally exceed substantially those related to the maximization of GDP growth. However, great differences do emerge. For the 12 countries examined by time-series techniques, the difference between the actual level and the peak of the BARS curve ranges from 5.7 points for Germany and 18.1 points for Belgium. Panel data analysis for EU-27 shows a peak of the BARS curve at 37%, while the actual level is about 47%. While, panel data disaggregation shows a similar situation for the Western Continental Countries, with a smaller gap for Anglo-Saxon countries. For low per capita GDP countries the peak is higher than for the mature economies. So, further research may prove useful to show light on the disparities emerging in the empirical analysis of individual countries and of the panel sub-groups. However, the present research provides enough evidence that high GDP countries of EU have overcome the level of government size compatible with GDP growth rate maximization.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26669.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Government size; economic growth; BARS curve; public expenditure; EU-27.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2010-11-20 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-11-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2010-11-20 (Public Economics)
- NEP-PUB-2010-11-20 (Public Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fölster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1998.
"Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries,"
Working Paper Series
503, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 20 Jun 2000.
- Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
- Fölster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2000. "Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 391, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Hans Lind & Roland Granqvist, 2010. "A Note on the Concept of Excess Burden," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 78-88, March.
- Kent Osband & Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2000. "Safety from Currency Crashes," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 4.
- Barro, R.J., 1988.
"Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth,"
RCER Working Papers
130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Guseh, James S., 1997. "Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Political-Economy Framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 175-192, January.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tanzi, Vito & Schuknecht, Ludger, 1997. "Reconsidering the Fiscal Role of Government: The International Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 164-68, May.
- Anaman, Kwabena A., 2004. "Determinants of economic growth in Brunei Darussalam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 777-796, August.
- Edgar Peden & Michael Bradley, 1989. "Government size, productivity, and economic growth: The post-war experience," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 229-245, June.
- Basil Dalamagas, 2000. "Public sector and economic growth: the Greek experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 277-288.
- Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2000. "A further generalization of the Solow growth model: the role of the public sector," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-84, July.
- Bernhard Heitger, 2001. "The Scope of Government and its Impact on Economic Growth in OECD Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1034, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005.
"Public sector efficiency: An international comparison,"
Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
- Afonso, António & Schuknecht, Ludger & Tanzi, Vito, 2003. "Public sector efficiency: an international comparison," Working Paper Series 0242, European Central Bank.
- Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
- Rostow,W. W., 1971. "Politics and the Stages of Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521096539, December.
- Philip J. Grossman, 1987. "The Optimal Size of Government," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Zsolt Becsi, 1996. "Do state and local taxes affect relative state growth?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Mar, pages 18-36.
- Davies, Antony, 2009. "Human development and the optimal size of government," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 326-330, March.
- Abdullah Yavas, 1998. "Does too much government investment retard economic development of a country?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 296-308, September.
- Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010.
"Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending,"
in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2009. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending," NBER Working Papers 15438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas A. Garrett & Russell M. Rhine, 2006. "On the size and growth of government," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 13-30.
- Benson, Bruce L & Johnson, Ronald N, 1986. "The Lagged Impact of State and Local Taxes on Economic Activity and Political Behavior," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(3), pages 389-401, July.
- Magazzino, Cosimo, 2011. "The nexus between public expenditure and inflation in the Mediterranean countries," MPRA Paper 28493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.