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Structural break, stability and demand for money in India

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  • Singh, Prakash
  • Pandey, Manoj K.

Abstract

This paper attempts to take a meticulous look on stability of money demand in India Using annual data for period 1953-2007 and the Hansen (1992) and Gregory Hansen (1996) co-integration approaches with structural break. Results of the Gregory Hansen (1996) cointegration analysis show the presence of cointegration in demand for money, real GDP and nominal interest rate with structural break at 1965. Further, study also suggests for downward shift of about 0.33 % around 1965 in the demand for money function and put forward that demand for money is stable except for the period of 1975-1998.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15425.

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Date of creation: 05 Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15425

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Keywords: Money Demand; Cointegration with Structural Break; Stability; Choice of Monetary Instrument;

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  1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  3. Inoue, Takeshi & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the money demand function in India," IDE Discussion Papers 166, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  4. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  6. Samarjit Das & Kumarjit Mandal, 2000. "Modeling Money Demand in India: Testing Weak, Strong & Super Exogeneity," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-19, January.
  7. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  9. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-48, November.
  10. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break," Working Papers 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  13. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Lee, Junsoo, 2000. "On the end-point issue in unit root tests in the presence of a structural break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 7-11, July.
  15. Ramachandran, M., 2004. "Do broad money, output, and prices stand for a stable relationship in India?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 983-1001, December.
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Cited by:
  1. P. Indira Devi & K.R. Shanmugam & M.G. Jayasree, 2012. "Compensating Wages for Occupational Risks of Farm Workers in India," Working Papers 2012-071, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  2. Paunic, Alida, 2009. "I did it my way," MPRA Paper 17547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. D.K. Srivastava & K.R. Shanmugam, 2012. "Stationarity Test for Aggregate Outputs in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2012-072, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.

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