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Exploring the Usefulness of a Non-Random Holdout Sample for Model Validation: Welfare Effects on Female Behavior

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Author Info
Michael P. Keane () (Department of Economics, Yale University)
Kenneth I. Wolpin () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

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Abstract

Opportunities for external validation of behavioral models in the social sciences that are based on randomized social experiments or on large regime shifts, that can be treated as experiments for the purpose of model validation, are extremely rare. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach, namely mimicking the essential element of regime change by non-randomly holding out from estimation a portion of the sample that faces a significantly different policy regime. The non-random holdout sample is used for model validation/selection. We illustrate the non-random holdout sample approach to model validation in the context of a model of welfare program participation. The policy heterogeneity that we exploit to generate a non-random holdout sample takes advantage of the wide variation across states that has existed in welfare policy.

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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 06-006.

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Length: 85 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:06-006

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Related research
Keywords: Model validation; Hold-out sample; Public welfare;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-89, August.
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  2. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
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  3. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1994. "The Solution and Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models by Simulation and Interpolation: Monte Carlo Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 648-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bontemps, Christian & Robin, Jean-Marc & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2000. "Equilibrium Search with Continuous Productivity Dispersion: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(2), pages 305-58, May.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro mira, 2007. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey," Working Papers tecipa-297, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Hanming Fang & Michael Keane & Ahmed Khwaja, & Martin Salm & Dan Silverman, 2006. "Testing the Mechanisms of Structural Models: The Case of the Mickey Mantle Effect," MEA discussion paper series 06113, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Laroque, Guy & Salanié, Bernard, 2008. "Does Fertility Respond to Financial Incentives?," IZA Discussion Papers 3575, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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