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A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimation Algorithm For Dynamic Panel Data Models With Unobserved Endogenous State Variables

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  • Michael P. Keane
  • Robert M. Sauer

Abstract

This article develops a simulation estimation algorithm that is particularly useful for estimating dynamic panel data models with unobserved endogenous state variables. Repeated sampling experiments on dynamic probit models with serially correlated errors indicate the estimator has good small sample properties. We apply the estimator to a model of female labor supply and show that the rarely used Polya model fits the data substantially better than the popular Markov model. The Polya model also produces far less state dependence and many fewer race effects and much stronger effects of education, young children, and husband's income on female labor supply decisions.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00606.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 51 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 925-958

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:51:y:2010:i:4:p:925-958

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  4. Flinn, Christopher J, 1997. "Equilibrium Wage and Dismissal Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(2), pages 221-36, April.
  5. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael, 2001. "Computationally intensive methods for integration in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 56, pages 3463-3568 Elsevier.
  6. Arellano, M. & Honore, B., 2000. "Panel Data Models: Some Recent Developments," Papers 0016, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  7. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
  8. Daniel A. Ackerberg, 2001. "A New Use of Importance Sampling to Reduce Computational Burden in Simulation Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Paul A. Ruud., 1988. "Extensions of Estimation Methods Using the EM Algorithm.," Economics Working Papers 8899, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1992. "On Efficiency of Methods of Simulated Moments and Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Discrete Response Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 518-552, December.
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  12. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 2001. "The Effect of Parental Transfers and Borrowing Constraints on Educational Attainment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1051-1103, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Keane, Michael P. & Todd, Petra E. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2011. "The Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models: Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Methods and Applications," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier.
  2. Keane, Michael P. & Sauer, Robert M., 2006. "Classification Error in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Implications for Female Labor Supply Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 2332, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Del Boca, Daniela & Sauer, Robert M., 2009. "Life cycle employment and fertility across institutional environments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 274-292, April.
  4. Handel, Benjamin R. & Misra, Kanishka & Roberts, James W., 2013. "Robust firm pricing with panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 165-185.
  5. Murat G. Kirdar, 2005. "Return Migration and Saving Behavior of Foreign Workers in Germany," ERC Working Papers 0506, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2005.
  6. Marina Pavan, 2003. "Consumer Durables and Risky Borrowing: the Effects of Bankruptcy Protection," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 573, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 May 2005.
  7. Michael P. Keane, 2013. "Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand," Economics Papers 2013-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  8. Murat G. Kirdar, 2004. "An Estimable Dynamic Model of Asset Accumulation and Return Migration," ERC Working Papers 0416, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2004.
  9. Antonio Merlo & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2008. "The Transition from School to Jail: Youth Crime and High School Completion Among Black Males, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 16 Jan 2009.
  10. Kirdar, Murat G., 2010. "Estimating the Impact of Immigrants on the Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration is an Endogenous Choice," IZA Discussion Papers 4894, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Exploring the Usefulness of a Non-Random Holdout Sample for Model Validation: Welfare Effects on Female Behavior," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. Sauer, Robert M., 2012. "Does It Pay for Women to Volunteer?," IZA Discussion Papers 6784, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Antonio Merlo & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2008. "The Transition from School to Jail: Youth Crime and High School Completion Among Black Males," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-033, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  14. Moshe Buchinsky, 2008. "Residential Location in Israel," 2008 Meeting Papers 931, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Malik, Sheheryar & Pitt, Michael K, 2009. "Modelling Stochastic Volatility with Leverage and Jumps : A Simulated Maximum Likelihood Approach via Particle Filtering," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 897, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  16. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2010. "The Role Of Labor And Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity, And The Welfare System In The Life Cycle Decisions Of Black, Hispanic, And White Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 851-892, 08.

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