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Energy Prices, Growth, and the Channels in Between: Theory and Evidence

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  • Lucas Bretschger

Abstract

The paper develops a theoretical model with different channels through which energy affects economic growth. The conditions for a crowding out of capital accumulation by intensive energy use are derived. In the empirical part, estimations using a system with five simultaneous equations for a sample of 37 developed countries with five-year average panel data over the period 1975-2004 are presented. It is shown that in the long run rising energy prices are not a threat to development. On the contrary, we find conditions under which decreasing energy input induces investments in physical and knowledge capital. A ten percent increase in energy prices is found to raise the growth rate by 0.4 percentage points.

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  • Lucas Bretschger, 2010. "Energy Prices, Growth, and the Channels in Between: Theory and Evidence," OxCarre Working Papers 034, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:034
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    Cited by:

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    2. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2020. "Does income inequality feed the Dutch disease?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03012653, HAL.
    3. Miranda R. Gorman & David A. Dzombak, 2019. "An Assessment of the Environmental Sustainability and Circularity of Future Scenarios of the Copper Life Cycle in the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Gersbach, Hans & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine, 2021. "Permit markets, carbon prices and the creation of innovation clusters," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Ara Jo, 2020. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Clean and Dirty Energy with Technological Bias," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 20/344, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    6. Best, Rohan & Burke, Paul J., 2018. "Electricity availability: A precondition for faster economic growth?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 321-329.
    7. Bretschger, Lucas, 2017. "Climate policy and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi & Elena Paglialunga, 2019. "Capital–energy substitutability in manufacturing sectors: methodological and policy implications," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 157-182, June.
    9. Lucas Bretschger & Alexandra Vinogradova, 2015. "Equitable and effective climate policy: Integrating less developed countries into a global climate agreement," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 437-467, October.
    10. Kırca, Mustafa & Canbay, Şerif & Pirali, Kerem, 2020. "Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Lucas Bretschger, 2010. "Sustainability economics, resource efficiency, and the Green New Deal," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 187-202, August.
    12. Lucas Bretschger, 2022. "Green Road is Open: Economic Pathway with a Carbon Price Escalator," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 22/375, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    13. Lucas Bretschger, 2018. "Greening Economy, Graying Society," CER-ETH Press, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich, edition 2, number 18-001.
    14. Olexandr Yemelyanov & Anastasiya Symak & Tetyana Petrushka & Roman Lesyk & Lilia Lesyk, 2018. "Evaluation of the Adaptability of the Ukrainian Economy to Changes in Prices for Energy Carriers and to Energy Market Risks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-34, December.
    15. Ali Sekkach & Nabil Boubrahimi, 2022. "Oil price volatility and GDP for oil-importing countries: Case of Morocco [Volatilité des prix du pétrole et PIB des pays importateurs : Cas du Maroc]," Post-Print hal-03748687, HAL.
    16. Al Aali-Bujari & Francisco Venegas-Mart nez & Alfredo Omar Palafox-Roca, 2017. "Impact of Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Economies (1977-2014): A Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 18-25.
    17. Borissov, Kirill & Brausmann, Alexandra & Bretschger, Lucas, 2019. "Carbon pricing, technology transition, and skill-based development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 252-269.
    18. Lucas Bretschger, 2016. "Is the Environment Compatible with Growth? Adopting an Integrated Framework," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 16/260, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    19. Andreas Schaefer, 2017. "Enforcement of Intellectual Property, Pollution Abatement, and Directed Technical Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(3), pages 457-480, March.
    20. Calì, Massimiliano & Cantore, Nicola & Marin, Giovanni & Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Nicolli, Francesco & Presidente, Giorgio, 2023. "Energy prices and the economic performance of firms in emerging countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 357-366.
    21. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara & Andrés Felipe Oviedo-Gómez, 2020. "Efecto derrame del mercado internacional en las economías latinoamericanas: los casos de Chile, Brasil, Colombia y México," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 39(70), pages 107-138, July.
    22. Olexandr Yemelyanov & Anastasiya Symak & Tetyana Petrushka & Olena Zahoretska & Myroslava Kusiy & Roman Lesyk & Lilia Lesyk, 2019. "Changes in Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Aspirations for Energy Independence: Sectoral Analysis of Uses of Natural Gas in Ukrainian Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-34, December.
    23. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2017. "Energy subsidies, public investment and endogenous growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 693-709.
    24. Camacho, Maximo & Caro, Angela & Peña, Daniel, 2023. "What drives industrial energy prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Prices and Growth; Endogenous Capital Accumulation; Structural Change; Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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