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ENTICE: Endogenous Technological Change in the DICE Model of Global Warming

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  • David Popp
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    Abstract

    Despite growing empirical evidence of the link between environmental policy and innovation, most economic models of environmental policy treat technology as exogenous. For long-term problems such as climate change, this omission can be significant. In this paper, I modify the DICE model of climate change (Nordhaus 1994, Nordhaus and Boyer 2000) to allow for induced innovation in the energy sector. Ignoring induced technological change overstates the welfare costs of an optimal carbon tax policy by 8.3 percent. However, cost-savings, rather than increased environmental benefits, appear to drive the welfare gains, as the effect of induced innovation on emissions and mean global temperature is small. Sensitivity analysis shows that potential crowding out of other R&D and market failures in the R&D sector are the most important limiting factors to the potential of induced innovation. Differences in these key assumptions explain much of the variation in the findings of other similar models.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9762.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2003
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    Publication status: published as Popp, David. "Entice: Endogenous Technological Change In The DICE Model Of Global Warming," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2004, v48(1,Jul), 742-768.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9762

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    1. Richard G. Newell & Adam B. Jaffe & Robert N. Stavins, 1999. "The Induced Innovation Hypothesis And Energy-Saving Technological Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 941-975, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Vincent M. Otto & Andreas Löschel & Rob Dellink, 2005. "Energy Biased Technical Change: A CGE Analysis," Working Papers 2005.90, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2005. "Economic growth and global warming: A model of multiple equilibria and thresholds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 430-447, August.
    3. Valentina Bosetti & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Lanza, 2004. "How Consistent are Alternative Short-Term Climate Policies with Long-Term Goals?," Working Papers 2004.157, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd & Nathani, Carsten & Schleich, Joachim, 2005. "Endogenous technological change and emissions: the case of the German steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1143-1154, June.
    5. Newell, Richard G. & Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 2006. "The effects of economic and policy incentives on carbon mitigation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 563-578, November.
    6. Greiner, Alfred, 2005. "Anthropogenic climate change and abatement in a multi-region world with endogenous growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 224-234, November.

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