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What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model

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Author Info
William D. Nordhaus () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
David Popp

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Abstract

Governments must cope with the enormous uncertainties about both future climate change as well as the costs and benefits of slowing climate change. This study analyses the value of improved information about a variety of geophysical and economic processes. The value of information is estimated using the "PRICE model" which is a probabilistic extension of earlier models of the economics of global warming. The study uses five different approaches to estimating the value of information about all uncertain parameters and about individual parameters. It is estimated that the value of early information is between $1.5 and $2 billion for each year that resolution of uncertainty is moved toward the present. We estimate that the most important uncertain variables are the damages of climate change and the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Resolving the uncertainties about these two parameters would contribute 75 percent of the value of improved knowledge. Note: CFP 941.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cp/p09a/p0941.pdf
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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d11a/d1117.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1117.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1996
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Publication status: Published in The Energy Journal (1997), 18(1): 1-45
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1117

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peter Hoeller & Andrew Dean & Masahiro Hayafuji, 1992. "New Issues, New Results: The OECD's Second Survey of the Macroeconomic Costs of Reducing CO2 Emissions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 123, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Klaus Keller & Louise I. Miltich & Alexander Robinson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "How overconfident are current projections of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions?," Working Papers FNU-124, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  2. David F. Bradford & Seung-Rae Kim & Klaus Keller, 2004. "Optimal Technological Portfolios for Climate-Change Policy under Uncertainty: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 140, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sa, Maria Antonieta Cunha e & Santos, Vasco, 2007. "Experimentation with Accumulation," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp503, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(25), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Brian C. O'neill & Paul Crutzen & Arnulf Grübler & Minh Ha-Duong & Klaus Keller & Charles Kolstad & Jonathan Koomey & Andreas Lange & Michael Obersteiner & Michael Oppenheimer & William Pepper & Warr, 2006. "Learning and climate change," Post-Print halshs-00134718_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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