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What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model

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Author Info
William D. Nordhaus
David Popp

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Abstract

Governments must cope with the enormous uncertainties about both future climate change as well as the costs and benefits of slowing climate change. This study analyses the value of improved information about a variety of geophysical and economic processes. The value of information is estimated using the "PRICE model" which is a probabilistic extension of earlier models of the economics of global warming. The study uses five different approaches to estimating the value of information about all uncertain parameters and about individual parameters. It is estimated that the value of early information is between $1 and $2 billion for each year that resolution of uncertainty is moved toward the present. We estimate that the most important uncertain variables are the damages of climate change and the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Resolving the uncertainties about these two parameters would contribute 75 percent of the value of improved knowledge.

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Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): 18 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-46
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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1997v18-01-a01

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F0 - International Economics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peter Hoeller & Andrew Dean & Masahiro Hayafuji, 1992. "New Issues, New Results: The OECD's Second Survey of the Macroeconomic Costs of Reducing CO2 Emissions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 123, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David F. Bradford & Seung-Rae Kim & Klaus Keller, 2004. "Optimal Technological Portfolios for Climate-Change Policy under Uncertainty: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 140, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Brian C. O'neill & Paul Crutzen & Arnulf Grübler & Minh Ha-Duong & Klaus Keller & Charles Kolstad & Jonathan Koomey & Andreas Lange & Michael Obersteiner & Michael Oppenheimer & William Pepper & Warr, 2006. "Learning and climate change," Post-Print halshs-00134718_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. Klaus Keller & Louise I. Miltich & Alexander Robinson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "How overconfident are current projections of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions?," Working Papers FNU-124, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sa, Maria Antonieta Cunha e & Santos, Vasco, 2007. "Experimentation with Accumulation," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp503, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(25), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
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