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Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?

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Author Info
J. Joseph Beaulieu
Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason
Jeffrey A. Miron

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Abstract

We show there is a strong, positive correlation across countries and industries between the standard deviation of the seasonal component and the standard deviation of the non-seasonal component of aggregate variables such as output, labor input, interest rates, and prices. After documenting this stylized fact, we discuss possible explanations and develop a model that generates our empirical finding. The main feature of the model is that firms endogenously choose their degree of technological flexibility as a function of the amounts of seasonal and non-seasonal variation in demand. Although this model is intended to be illustrative, we find evidence supporting one of its key empirical implications.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3635.

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Date of creation: Feb 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3635

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert B. Barsky & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1989. "The Cyclical Behavior of Strategic Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 73-97, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Simon Kuznets, 1933. "Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn33-1.
  7. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-2), pages 433-494. [Downloadable!]
  8. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Papers 0011, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
    Other versions:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Eighty years of observations on the adjusted monetary base: 1918-1997," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-22. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeffrey A. Miron & J. Joseph Beaulieu, 1995. "What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 5258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Mitsuhiro Kaneda & Gil Mehrez, 1998. "Seasonal Fluctuations and International Trade," International Trade 9809001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guido de Blasio & Federico Mini, 2001. "Seasonality and Capacity: an Application to Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 403, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2002. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 487, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap, 1996. "International Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Employment Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 331-353, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2009. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0922, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gil Mehrez, 1996. "State Dependent Adjustment in an Economy with Seasonal Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 9609006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "The construction of coincident and leading indicators for the euro area business cycler of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 434, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Stephanie Aaronson & Andrew Figura, 2005. "How biased are measures of cyclical movements in productivity and hours?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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