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History Vs. Expectations

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  • Paul Krugman

Abstract

In models with external economies, there are often two or more long run equilibria. Which equilibrium is chosen? Much of the literature presumes that "history" sets initial conditions which determine the outcome, but an alternative view stresses the role of "expectations", i.e. of self-fulfilling prophecy. This paper uses a simple trade model with both external economies and adjustment costs to show how the parameters of the economy determine the relative importance of history and expectations in determining equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2971.

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Date of creation: May 1989
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Publication status: published as Krugman, Paul. "History Versus Expectations," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991, v106(2), 651-667.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2971

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  1. Panagariya, Arvind, 1986. "Increasing returns, dynamic stability, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 43-63, February.
  2. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-26, October.
  3. Neary, J Peter, 1978. "Dynamic Stability and the Theory of Factor-Market Distortions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 671-82, September.
  4. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  5. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1988. "A Theory of Sectoral Adjustment," Discussion Papers 812, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  6. Krugman, Paul, 1981. "Trade, accumulation, and uneven development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 149-161, April.
  7. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  8. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1972. "The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1237-55, December.
  9. Mussa, Michael, 1978. "Dynamic Adjustment in the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 775-91, October.
  10. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 878, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  11. Diamond, Peter & Fudenberg, Drew, 1989. "Rational Expectations Business Cycles in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 606-19, June.
  12. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1988. "Stability of Equilibria with Externalities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 261-77, May.
  13. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-37, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Paul Krugman, 1990. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Esteban Jaimovich, 2006. "Sectors Expansion, Allocation of Talent and Adverse Selection in Development," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_018, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

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