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The Bias of the RSR Estimator and the Accuracy of Some Alternatives

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  • William N. Goetzmann
  • Liang Peng

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of cross-sectional heteroskedasticity in repeat sales regression (RSR). RSR estimators are essentially geometric averages of individual asset returns because of the logarithmic transformation of price relatives. We show that the cross sectional variance of asset returns affects the magnitude of bias in the average return estimate for that period, while reducing the bias for the surrounding periods. It is not easy to use an approximation method to correct the bias problem. We suggest a maximum-likelihood alternative to the RSR that directly estimates index returns that are analogous to the RSR estimators but are arithmetic averages of individual returns. Simulations show that these estimators are robust to time-varying cross-sectional variance and may be more accurate than RSR and some alternative methods of RSR.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0270.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0270

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  1. Jesse M. Abraham & William S. Schauman, 1991. "New Evidence on Home Prices from Freddie Mac Repeat Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 333-352.
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Cited by:
  1. Arthur Korteweg & Roman Kräussl & Patrick Verwijmeren, . "Does it pay to invest in Art? A Selection-corrected Returns Perspective," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-152/IV/61, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Korteweg, Arthur & Kräussl, Roman & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2013. "Does it pay to invest in art? A selection-corrected returns perspective," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. James Pesando & Pauline Shum, 2007. "The law of one price, noise and “irrational exuberance”: the auction market for Picasso prints," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 263-277, December.
  4. James Bugden, 2013. "Renovations and the Repeat-Sales House Price Index," Working Papers 2013.08, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  5. Erdos, Péter & Ormos, Mihály, 2010. "Random walk theory and the weak-form efficiency of the US art auction prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1062-1076, May.
  6. Kathryn Graddy & Jonathan Hamilton & Rachel Pownall, 2012. "Repeat‐Sales Indexes: Estimation without Assuming that Errors in Asset Returns Are Independently Distributed," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 131-166, 03.
  7. Rainer Schulz & Martin Wersing & Axel Werwatz, 2013. "Automated Valuation Modelling: A Specification Exercise," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Erdős, Péter & Ormos, Mihály, 2012. "Pricing of collectibles: Baedeker guidebooks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1968-1978.
  9. Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.

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