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Repeat Sales Indexes: Estimation Without Assuming that Errors in Asset Returns Are Independently Distributed

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  • Campbell, Rachel
  • Graddy, Kathryn
  • Hamilton, Jonathan

Abstract

This paper proposes an alternative specification for the second stage of the Case-Shiller repeat sales method. This specification is based on serial correlation in the deviations from the mean one-period returns on the underlying individual assets, whereas the original Case-Shiller method assumes that the deviations from mean returns by the underlying individual assets are i.i.d. The methodology proposed in this paper is easy to implement and provides more accurate estimates of the standard errors of returns under serial correlation. The repeat sales methodology is generally used to construct an index of prices or returns for unique, infrequently traded assets such as houses, art, and musical instruments which are likely to be prone to exhibit serial correlation in returns. We demonstrate our methodology on a dataset of art prices and on a dataset of real estate prices from the city of Amsterdam.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7344.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7344

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Keywords: art; index; real estate; repeat sales;

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  1. Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2003. "Selectivity, Quality Adjustment and Mean Reversion in the Measurement of House Values," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt4045q0v3, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  2. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Roll, Richard, 1983. "On computing mean returns and the small firm premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 371-386, November.
  5. Goetzmann, William Nelson, 1992. "The Accuracy of Real Estate Indices: Repeat Sale Estimators," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-53, March.
  6. Jesse M. Abraham & William S. Schauman, 1991. "New Evidence on Home Prices from Freddie Mac Repeat Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 333-352.
  7. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng, 2001. "The Bias of the RSR Estimator and the Accuracy of Some Alternatives," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm174, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
  8. Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
  9. Graddy, Kathryn & Margolis, Philip, 2007. "Fiddling with Value: Violins as an Investment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-76, December.
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Cited by:
  1. James Bugden, 2014. "Quality-Adjusted Repeat-Sale House Price Indices," Working Papers 2014.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.

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