House Prices and Rents: Socio-Economic Impacts and Prospects
AbstractWe use New Zealand property data at the area unit (suburb) level to examine implied prospects for communities over time, and test whether these derived prospects have explanatory power relating to actual future outcomes. We also use the data to analyse whether disadvantaged communities face particular problems in relation to rental markets. Our results indicate that: capital gains and rental growth expectations historically have appeared reasonable in that they have not been suggestive of asset bubbles or other fad behaviour; derived capital gains and rental growth expectations have explanatory power both over actual future capital gains and actual future rental growth; and lower socio-economic areas face higher rental yields even after controlling for non-socio-economic factors than do high socio-economic areas.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 07_01.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
House prices; house rents; rental yields; capital gains; community prospects;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2007-04-09 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2007-04-09 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
- Clark, Todd E., 1995. "Rents and prices of housing across areas of the United States. A cross-section examination of the present value model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 237-247, April.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1989.
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes,"
NBER Working Papers
2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
- Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Sun, Jian, 2006.
"A simple alternative house price index method,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-97, March.
- Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996.
"Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June.
- Dennis R. Capozza & Paul J. Seguin, 1995. "Expectations, Efficiency, and Euphoria in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 5179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua Gallin, 2004. "The long-run relationship between house prices and rents," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990.
"Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market,"
Real Estate Economics,
American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 3368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0304, Banco de Espa�a.
- Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland, 2013. "Housing Market Dynamics and the GFC: The Complex Dynamics of a Credit Shock," Working Papers 13_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland & Andrew Coleman & James Kerr & Alex Collier, 2013. "A New Zealand Regional Housing Model," Working Papers 13_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tui Head).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.