A New Zealand Regional Housing Model
AbstractThe New Zealand Regional Housing Model (NZRHM) includes estimated equations for four key housing market variables: house prices, housing supply (new dwelling consents), residential vacant land (lot) prices, and average rents. Long run (cointegration) relationships and short run (error correction) relationships are estimated for each of these variables across 72 TLAs within New Zealand. The model is designed so that it can be used for short to medium term forecasting. It is also useful for simulating the effects of shocks to the housing market. The paper presents simulations of the impacts of shocks to exogenous variables (population, credit restrictions, construction costs and farm prices) as well as shocks to policy variables (developer contributions, accommodation supplement, and land availability). We also simulate the consequences of the Christchurch earthquakes for Canterbury housing outcomes. The over-arching conclusion across all simulations is that housing markets are very slow to adjust to disequilibria, such that exogenous shocks have very long lasting effects on prices and the housing stock.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 13_02.
Length: 84 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
house prices; housing supply; lot prices; rents; housing model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2013-03-02 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-03-02 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-URE-2013-03-02 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Oded Palmon & Baron A. Smith, 1998. "New Evidence on Property Tax Capitalization," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1099-1128, October.
- Susin, Scott, 2002. "Rent vouchers and the price of low-income housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 109-152, January.
- Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2007. "House Prices and Rents: Socio-Economic Impacts and Prospects," Working Papers 07_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Andrew Coleman & Grant M. Scobie, 2009.
"A Simple Model of Housing Rental and Ownership with Policy Simulations,"
Treasury Working Paper Series
09/05, New Zealand Treasury.
- Andrew Coleman & Grant Scobie, 2009. "A Simple Model of Housing Rental and Ownership with Policy Simulations," Working Papers 09_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Sweeney, James L., 1974. "A commodity hierarchy model of the rental housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 288-323, July.
- Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2010. "Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 325-353.
- Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296, August.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Iris Claus & Arthur Grimes, 2003. "Asymmetric Information, Financial Intermediation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Critical Review," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/19, New Zealand Treasury.
- Nigel Pain and Peter Westaway, 1996.
"Modelling Structural Change In The UK Housing Market: A Comparison Of Alternative House Price Models,"
NIESR Discussion Papers
98, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tui Head).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.