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Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle

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  • Atella, Vincenzo

    ()

  • Centoni, Marco

    ()

  • Cubadda, Gianluca

    ()

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on the role of technology shocks as source of the business cycle in two ways. First, we document that time-series of US productivity and hours are apparently affected by a structural break in the late 60’s, which is likely due to a major change in the monetary policy. Second, we show that the importance of demand shocks over the business cycle has sharply increased after the break.

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File URL: http://web.unimol.it/progetti/repec/mol/ecsdps/ESDP07041.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI in its series Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers with number esdp07041.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: 22 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp07041

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Keywords: Business cycle; technology shocks; structural breaks.;

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  1. Galí, Jordi & Gambetti, Luca, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Gali, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Valles, Javier, 2003. "Technology shocks and monetary policy: assessing the Fed's performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 723-743, May.
  5. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  6. Bertrand Candelon & Gianluca Cubadda, 2006. "Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 741-760, December.
  7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  8. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
  9. Vincenzo Atella & Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2007. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," CEIS Research Paper, Tor Vergata University, CEIS 105, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  10. Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
  11. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
  12. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
  13. John Duffy and Jim Engle-Warnick, 2001. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics 151, Society for Computational Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Atella, Vincenzo & Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2007. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI esdp07041, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  2. Gianluca Cubadda & Umberto Triacca, 2011. "An Alternative Solution to the Autoregressivity Paradox in Time Series Analysis," CEIS Research Paper, Tor Vergata University, CEIS 184, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jan 2011.

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