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Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle

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  • Atella, Vincenzo

    ()

  • Centoni, Marco

    ()

  • Cubadda, Gianluca

    ()

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on the role of technology shocks as source of the business cycle in two ways. First, we document that time-series of US productivity and hours are apparently affected by a structural break in the late 60’s, which is likely due to a major change in the monetary policy. Second, we show that the importance of demand shocks over the business cycle has sharply increased after the break.

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File URL: http://web.unimol.it/progetti/repec/mol/ecsdps/ESDP07041.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI in its series Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers with number esdp07041.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: 22 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp07041

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Keywords: Business cycle; technology shocks; structural breaks.;

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  1. Jordi Gali & J. David Lopez-Salido & Javier Valles, 2002. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance," NBER Working Papers 8768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bertrand Candelon & Gianluca Cubadda, 2006. "Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 741-760, December.
  4. Duffy, John & Engle-Warnick, Jim, 2006. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1363-1377, August.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
  7. Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
  8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  9. Vincenzo Atella & Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2007. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," CEIS Research Paper 105, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  10. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  12. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
  13. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Atella, Vincenzo & Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2008. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 392-395, September.
  2. Cubadda, Gianluca & Triacca, Umberto, 2011. "An alternative solution to the Autoregressivity Paradox in time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1451-1454, May.

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