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Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach

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Author Info
Duffy, John
Engle-Warnick, Jim

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Abstract

We use two different nonparametric methods to determine whether there were multiple regimes in U.S. monetary policy over the period 1955-2003. We model monetary policy using two different versions of Taylor's rule for the nominal interest-rate target. By contrast with parametric tests for regime changes, the nonparametric methods we use allow the data to determine the dimensions on which to split the sample for purposes of estimating the coefficients of the Taylor rule. We find evidence for a few structural breaks and consistent agreement between our two nonparametric methods on the dating of those breaks.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0069
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (August)
Pages: 1363-1377
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:5:p:1363-1377

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored" rules. Does one fit (or hide) all?," HEI Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2005. "``Taylored'' Rules. Does One Fit All?," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/06, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Benjamin D. Keen & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "How robust are popular models of nominal frictions?," Working Papers 0903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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