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Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach

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  • John Duffy and Jim Engle-Warnick

Abstract

We use nonparametric, local regression and regression tree analysis to assess whether there exist multiple regimes in U.S. monetary policy over the period 1955:3-2000:2. We model U.S. monetary policy using a Taylor rule specification for the nominal interest rate target. By contrast with standard parametric tests for regime changes, the nonparametric methods we use allow the data to determine the dimensions on which to split the sample for purposes of estimating the coefficients of the Taylor rule. We also develop a procedure to assess the statistical significance of these splits in contrast to earlier applications of these techniques. Our findings suggest that there are indeed multiple regimes in U.S. monetary policy over the period examined. Furthermore, these regimes not exclusively characterized by periods of time, but may also depend on certain threshold values for inflation and the output gap. These findings yield further insights on the conduct of monetary policy over the period examined.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 151.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:151

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Keywords: monetary policy; regime changes; nonparametric methods; regression trees; local linear regression;

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Cited by:
  1. Chih Ming Tan & Louise C. Keely, 2004. "Understanding preferences for income redistribution," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 611, Econometric Society.
  2. Daniel Oliveira Cajueiro & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2010. "Fluctuation Dynamics in US Interest Rates and the Role of Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 206, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Oscar Díaz Q. & Marco Laguna V., 2007. "Factores que explican la reducción de las tasas pasivas de interés en el sistema bancario boliviano," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 331-366, octubre-d.
  4. Jim Engle-Warnick, 2001. "Inferring Strategies from Observed Actions: A Nonparametric, Binary Tree Classification Approach," Economics Papers 2001-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. Sagarika Mishra, . "Do Agents Learn by Least Squares? The Evidence Provided by Changes in Monetary Policy," Financial Econometics Series 2012_09, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  6. Saadi, Samir & Rahman, Abdul, 2008. "Evidence of non-stationary bias in scaling by square root of time: Implications for Value-at-Risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-289, July.
  7. Atella, Vincenzo & Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2007. "Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07041, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  8. Alejandro Gaytán & Jesús González-García, 2007. "Cambios estructurales en el mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria en México: un enfoque VAR no lineal," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 367-404, octubre-d.
  9. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, EconWPA.
  10. Benjamin D. Keen & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "How robust are popular models of nominal frictions?," Working Papers 0903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  11. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
  12. Sagarika Mishra & Sandeep Dhole, . "Least Squares Learning and the US Treasury Bill Rate," Financial Econometics Series 2013_05, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  13. María Fernanda Hernández & Juan José Valero & María Bernardette Díaz, 2007. "Perfil de riesgos del sistema bancario venezolano: aplicación de la metodología de stress testing," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 405-452, octubre-d.
  14. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
  15. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas Pearce, 2010. "Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 196-217, April.

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