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Quantifizierung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte ausgewählter Reformvorschläge der Studie "Reforms, Investment and Growth: An Agenda for France, Germany and Europe"

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  • Krebs, Tom
  • Scheffel, Martin

Abstract

Der demografische Wandel und die damit verbundene Alterung der Gesellschaft stellt das gesamte Wirtschaftssystem vor Herausforderungen, die eine Anpassung der wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen (Strukturreformen) notwendig machen. Vor diesem Hintergrund hat die Studie von Enderlein und Pisani-Ferry (2014) eine Reihe von konkreten Reformvorschlägen für Deutschland formuliert. Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es, eine Auswahl der vorgeschlagenen Maßnahmen auf Basis eines mikrofundierten gesamtwirtschaftlichen Modells mit heterogenen Haushalten zu evaluieren. Weiterhin soll diese Studie der Politik helfen, solche Reformen oder Reformpakete zu identifizieren, die Beschäftigung und Löhne in Deutschland steigern (“Mehr und bessere Arbeit”) und gleichzeitig die öffentlichen Haushalte langfristig nicht belasten (“Fiskalische Effizienz”).1 Die in der vorliegenden Studie zu untersuchenden Reformen sind: • Öffentliches Investitionsprogramm zum Ausbau der Ganztagsbetreuung für Kinder; • Verbesserung der steuerlichen Behandlung von Kinderbetreuungskosten; • Reform der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge im Niedriglohnbereich; • Steuerung der Zuwanderung nach Qualifikation durch ein Punktesystem; • Deregulierung im Bereich der unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleister; • Verbesserung der Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten kleinerer und mittlerer Unternehmen (KMU). Gegenstand dieser Studie ist nicht nur die Evaluation einzelner Reformvorschläge, sondern auch der Vergleich der Wirksamkeit und Effizienz verschiedener Reformen. Um die Vergleichbarkeit zu garantieren, wird die Analyse in einem einheitlichen Modellrahmen durchgeführt. Dies erfordert die Entwicklung eines neuartigen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Modells, das verschiedene Elemente aus der Makroökonomik und der Arbeitsmarktökonomik in kohärenter Weise integriert. Eine detaillierte Beschreibung des hier verwendeten Modellrahmens erfolgt in Kapitel 4 und im Anhang.

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  • Krebs, Tom & Scheffel, Martin, 2016. "Quantifizierung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte ausgewählter Reformvorschläge der Studie "Reforms, Investment and Growth: An Agenda for France, Germany and Europe"," Working Papers 16-04, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:wpaper:40515
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