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A Quantitative Analysis of Unemployment Benefit Extensions

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  • Makoto Nakajima

Abstract

This paper measures the effect of extensions of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on the unemployment rate using a calibrated structural model that features job search and consumption-saving decision, skill depreciation, UI eligibility, and UI benefit extensions that capture what has happened during the current downturn. I find that the extensions of UI benefits contributed to an increase in the unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points, which is about a quarter of an observed increase during the current downturn (a 5.1 percentage point increase from 4.8 percent at the end of 2007 to 9.9 percent in the fall of 2009). Among the remaining 3.9 percentage points, 2.4 percentage points are due to the large increase in the separation rate, while the staggering job-finding probability contributes 1.4 percentage points. The last extension in December 2010 moderately slows down the recovery of the unemployment rate. Specifically, the model indicates that the last extension keeps the unemployment rate higher by up to 0.4 percentage point during 2011.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number gd10-175.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd10-175

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Keywords: Unemployment Insurance; Extension; Labor Market; Search; Consumption Smoothing;

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The impact of the extension of unemployment insurance benefits in the US
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-04-01 14:03:00
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Cited by:
  1. Kurt Mitman & Stanislav Rabinovich, 2011. "Pro-cyclical Unemployment Benefits? Optimal Policy in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. David Fuller & Stephane Auray & Damba Lkhagvasuren, 2013. "Unemployment Insurance Take-up Rates in an Equilibrium Search Model," Working Papers 13001, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
  3. Michael W.L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2013. "On the importance of the participation margin for market fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2013-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Michael W.L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2011. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession: An Update," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-173/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Nie, Jun & Fang, Lei, 2014. "Human capital dynamics and the U.S. labor market," Research Working Paper RWP 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. Taskin, Temel, 2012. "Does unemployment insurance crowd out home production?," MPRA Paper 37583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. David R. Howell & Bert M. Azizoglu, 2011. "Unemployment benefits and work incentives: the US labour market in the Great Recession," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 221-240.
  8. Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2010. "Understanding the Welfare Effects of Unemployment Insurance Policy in General Equilibrium," 2010 Meeting Papers 286, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Krause, Michael U. & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Pollak, Andreas, 2013. "Employment Insurance and the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 49358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2012. "Beveridge curve shifts across countries since the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2012-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. David R. Howell & Bert M. Azizoglu, 2011. "Unemployment Benefits and Work Incentives: The U.S. Labor Market in the Great Recession (revised)," Working Papers wp257_revised, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

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