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Cycles économiques au Sénégal: une approche RBC

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  • CARMICHAEL, Benoît

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  • KEITA, Sikoro
  • SAMSON, Lucie
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    Abstract

    Open economy extensions of real business cycle models, even if generally successful, have met some difficulties replicating a few important stylized facts. In particular these models tend to predict excessive consumption smoothing and consumption correlation across countries. The observed negative correlation between the trade balance and output in developing countries, the variability of the trade balance and its correlation with the terms of trade have also proven difficult to reproduce. The paper considers how introduction of incomplete markets in the form of liquidity constraints can alleviate these problems. This analysis suggests that adding liquidity constraints helps predict the variability of consumption relative to output. It also improves our estimate of the correlation between the trade balance and output. The model correctly replicates the small positive correlation between the terms of trade and the trade balance. However, it slightly underpredicts the variability of the trade balance when fifty percent of the consumers are assumed to be liquidity constrained. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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    Paper provided by Université Laval - Département d'économique in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9506.

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    Date of creation: 1995
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    Handle: RePEc:lvl:laeccr:9506

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    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
    2. J. Danthine & J. Donaldson & R. Mehra, 2010. "The equity premium and the allocation of income risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1398, David K. Levine.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
    8. Richard Black & David Rose, 1997. "Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM," Working Papers 97-16, Bank of Canada.
    9. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in a Basic Equilibrium Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 855-889, December.
    10. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South financial integration and business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. A. Senhadji Semlali, 1997. "Sources of Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 97/146, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kalulumia, Pene & Nyankiye, Francine, 2000. "Labor Adjustment Costs, Macroeconomic Shocks and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 671-694, October.

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