Uncertainty and decision in climate change economics
AbstractUncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing, but not precisely how fast or in what ways. Nor do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes, or the options that will be available for reducing climate change. Furthermore the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified and expressed in probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical expected utility framework of limited value. We review the sources of uncertainty about all aspects of climate change and resolve these into various components, commenting on their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that are appropriate in the absence of quantitative probabilistic information, including non-probabilistic approaches and those based on multiple priors, and discuss their application in climate change economics.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in its series Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers with number 108.
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Geoffrey Heal & Antony Millner, 2013. "Uncertainty and Decision in Climate Change Economics," NBER Working Papers 18929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2013-04-27 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-ENE-2013-04-27 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2013-04-27 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-HME-2013-04-27 (Heterodox Microeconomics)
- NEP-RES-2013-04-27 (Resource Economics)
- NEP-UPT-2013-04-27 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christian P. Traeger, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Intertemporal Modeling of Uncertainty," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 261-285, 09.
- Gilboa,Itzhak, 2009.
"Theory of Decision under Uncertainty,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521517324, October.
- Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. " Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-70, October.
- Derek M. Lemoine & Christian P. Traeger, 2012.
"Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change,"
NBER Working Papers
18230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lemoine, Derek M. & Traeger, Christian P., 2011. "Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt9nd591ww, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Lemoine, Derek M. & Traeger, Christian P., 2010. "Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change," CUDARE Working Paper Series 1111R, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy, revised Dec 2011.
- Antony Millner & Raphael Calel & David Stainforth & George MacKerron, 2013. "Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 427-436, January.
- David Schmeidler, 1989.
"Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7662, David K. Levine.
- Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
- Tomasz Strzalecki, 2011.
"Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences,"
Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 47-73, 01.
- Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
- repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- Reyer Gerlagh & Matti Liski, 2012.
"Carbon Prices for the Next Thousand Years,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3855, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Postlewaite, Andrew & Schmeidler, David, 2009. "Is It Always Rational To Satisfy Savage'S Axioms?," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 285-296, November.
- Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2009.
"Decision theory under uncertainty,"
Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
09064, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Nov 2009.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 1998.
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1843, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Millner, Antony, 2013. "On welfare frameworks and catastrophic climate risks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 310-325.
- I. Gilboa & A. W. Postlewaite & D. Schmeidler., 2009.
"Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling,"
N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2009.
"On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Weitzman, Martin L., 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Scholarly Articles 3693423, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
- Christian Gollier, 2008.
"Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 171-186, December.
- Richard T. Woodward & Richard C. Bishop, 1997. "How to Decide When Experts Disagree: Uncertainty-Based Choice Rules in Environmental Policy," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 73(4), pages 492-507.
- Christian Gollier, 2012. "Pricing the Planet's Future: The Economics of Discounting in an Uncertain World," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9894.
- Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2004.
"Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
12, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2006.
- Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
- Christian Gollier & Richard Zeckhauser, 2005. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Time Preferences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 878-896, August.
- Antony Millner, 2013. "On Welfare Frameworks and Catastrophic Climate Risks," CESifo Working Paper Series 4442, CESifo Group Munich.
- Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2012. "Decision Theory Under Ambiguity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 234-270, 04.
- Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-60, December.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
- Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. "Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 21-46, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The GRI Administration).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.