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Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

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Author Info
Itzhak Gilboa
Andrew W. Postlewaite
David Schmeidler

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Abstract

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help us characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 22 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (Summer)
Pages: 173-88
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:22:y:2008:i:3:p:173-88

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  1. Sujoy Mukerji, 2009. "Foundations of ambiguity and economic modeling," Economics Series Working Papers 433, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.


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