Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross Country Analysis
AbstractUsing local projections, this paper investigates e ects of commodity price shocks on in ation. We estimate impulse responses of the consumer price indexes (CPIs) to a commodity price shock, based on a monthly panel consisting of 120 countries. Our results from the local projections suggest that the CPIs are almost fully adjusted within a year in response to a commodity price shock and thus e ects of commodity price shocks are transitory. We then explore the possibility that the responses of the CPIs may be dependent on the in ation regimes. Based on the smooth transition autoregressive models that use the past in ation rate as a transition variable, we nd that commodity price shocks have more persistent e ects on in ation in the low in ation regime than in the high in ation regime. Our analysis also shows that, in the high in ation regime, there are (i) stabilizing roles of the exchange rate on consumer prices; and (ii) large di erences in price responses between developed and developing countries. However, these e ects are not detected in the low in ation regime. Our ndings suggest that business cycle factors may play an important role in understanding e ects of commodity price shocks on the CPIs.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University in its series Discussion papers with number e-13-006.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501
Web page: http://www.econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp/projectcenter/
More information through EDIRC
Labor demand; Commodity prices; in ation; pass-through; local projections; smooth transition autoregressive models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-03-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2014-03-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2014-03-30 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2014-03-30 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2011.
"How costly are debt crises?,"
30953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Shintani, Mototsugu & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2013.
"Exchange rate pass-through and inflation: A nonlinear time series analysis,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 512-527.
- Mototsugu Shintani & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation: a nonlinear time series analysis," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 12-00008, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Mototsugu Shintani & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation: A Nonlinear Time Series Analysis," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0920, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2012.
"Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the U.S. Economy,"
12-2, Bank of Canada.
- Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
- C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Gert Peersman & Christiane Baumeister, 2009. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," 2009 Meeting Papers 171, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1985.
"Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 370-79, October.
- Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
- José de Gregorio, 2012. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation," Working Papers wp359, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
- James W. Hardin, 2002. "The robust variance estimator for two-stage models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(3), pages 253-266, August.
- Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
- Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2009.
"Time variation in the inflation passthrough of energy prices,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 09-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010. "Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
- Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
- Jos� De Gregorio, 2012. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy, and Inflation†," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(4), pages 600-633, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Graduate School of Economics Project Center).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.