Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Exchange rate pass-through and inflation: a nonlinear time series analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mototsugu Shintani

    ()
    (Deaprtment of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

  • Akiko Terada-Hagiwara

    ()
    (Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank)

  • Tomoyoshi Yabu

    ()
    (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and inflation by estimating a nonlinear time series model. Based on a simple theoretical model of ERPT determination, we show that the dynamics of ERPT can be well approximated by a class of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models using the past inflation rate as a transition variable. We employ several U-shaped transition functions in the estimation of the time-varying ERPT to US domestic prices. The estimation result suggests that declines in the ERPT during the 1980s and 1990s are associated with lowered inflation.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/VUECON/VUECON-12-00008.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Vanderbilt University Department of Economics in its series Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers with number 12-00008.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 09 May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-12-00008

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/econ/wparchive/index.html

Related research

Keywords: import prices; inflation indexation; pricing-to-market; smooth transition autoregressive models; sticky prices.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  2. Michael B. Devereux & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "State Dependent Pricing And Business Cycle Asymmetries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 281-310, 02.
  3. Frédérique BEC & Mélika BEN SALEM & Marine CARRASCO, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime star Model," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 99-100, pages 395-427.
  4. David Romer., 1989. "Staggered Price Setting with Endogenous Frequency of Adjustment," Economics Working Papers 89-115, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Charles Engel, 2006. "Equivalence Results for Optimal Pass-Through, Optimal Indexing to Exchange Rates, and Optimal Choice of Currency for Export Pricing," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(6), pages 1249-1260, December.
  7. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-36, March.
  9. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori & Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2003. "The Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Japanese Import Prices," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 53-81, October.
  12. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
  13. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  14. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2002. "Menu costs and the long-run output-inflation trade-off," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 95-100, June.
  15. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2010. "Price adjustment and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 181-200, February.
  16. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2013. "Exchange-rate pass through, openness, and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 131-150.
  2. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2013. "Nonlinear Mechanism of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Does Business Cycle Matter?," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201306, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  3. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in the Euro area: New evidence from smooth transition models," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(39), pages 1-28.
  4. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2012. "Non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from smooth transition models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2530-2545.
  5. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2013. "The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate in the Context of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," FIW Working Paper series 123, FIW.
  6. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
  7. Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross Country Analysis," Discussion papers e-13-006, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  8. Murase, Koichi, 2013. "Asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on domestic corporate goods prices," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 80-89.
  9. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Waël Louhichi, 2014. "Revisiting the Role of Inflation Environment in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Panel Threshold Approach," FIW Working Paper series 132, FIW.
  10. Herger Nils, 2013. "Market Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," Working Papers 13.08, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  11. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Reginaldo P. Nogueira Júnior, 2010. "Is low inflation really causing the decline in exchange rate pass-through?," Studies in Economics 1002, Department of Economics, University of Kent.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-12-00008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.