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Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks

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Author Info
Addison, John T. () (Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina and IZA, Bonn)
Portugal, Pedro (Banco de Portugal and Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

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Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in a competing risks framework with two destination states, namely, inactivity and employment. The major innovation is our recognition of defective risks. We first use a polynomial hazard function to test for the presence of two-sources of defective risks: search involving a random process of unlucky draws that yields a non-proper duration distribution; and a split-population model in which the decision by some individuals not to consider certain destination states produces a defective distribution. Having established the primacy of the latter model, we refine it using a more flexible piecewise-constant baseline hazard function. This specification broadly confirms our earlier findings but offers a more convincing explanation for positive and zero transition rates out of unemployment. Although we do not reject the null of proportionality, abandoning the proportionality assumption does not materially alter our conclusions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 350.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp350

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Related research
Keywords: unemployment duration; competing risks; defective risks; non-proper distribution; split-population model;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bart L. W. Cockx, 2000. "Analysis Of Transition Data By The Minimum-Chi-Square Method: An Application To Welfare Spells In Belgium," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 392-405, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Olympia Bover & Pilar García-Perea & Pedro Portugal, 2000. "Labour market outliers: Lessons from Portugal and Spain," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 379-428, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Narendranathan, W. & Stewart, M.B., 1989. "Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 331, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  6. Ridder, Geert & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2002. "A cross-country comparison of labor market frictions," Working Paper Series 2002:22, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Portugal, Pedro & Addison, John T, 1995. "Short- and Long-Term Unemployment. A Parametric Model with Time-Varying Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 205-27, May.
  9. Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte, 1989. "Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models," NBER Working Papers 2445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal, 2002. "Job search methods and outcomes," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 505-533, July.
    Other versions:
  11. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Olivier Blanchard & Pedro Portugal, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Pudney, Stephen & Thomas, Jonathan, 1995. "Specification Tests for the Competing Risks Duration Model: An Application to Unemployment Duration and Sectoral Movement," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 323-47, August.
  15. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kupets Olga, 2005. "Determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 05-01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  2. Anabela Carneiro & Pedro Portugal, 2006. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers: Evidence from a Matched Employer-employee Data Set," CETE Discussion Papers 0607, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Addison, John T. & Centeno, Mário & Portugal, Pedro, 2004. "Reservation Wages, Search Duration, and Accepted Wages in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 1252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Tomi Kyyrä & Ralf A. Wilke, 2006. "Reduction in the Long-Term Unemployment of the Elderly: A Success Story from Finland Revised," Discussion Papers 396, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  5. Martin Kahanec & Mariapia Mendola, 2007. "Social Determinants of Labor Market Status of Ethnic Minorities in Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 3146, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michael Rosholm & Ott Toomet, 2005. "A Search Model of Discouragement," IZA Discussion Papers 1633, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  7. Virve Ollikainen, 2003. "The Determinants of Unemployment Duration by Gender in Finland," Discussion Papers 316, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  8. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal, 2007. "How Do Different Entitlements to Unemployment Benefits Affect the Transitions from Unemployment into Employment?," IZA Discussion Papers 3016, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Arntz, Melanie & Wilke, Ralf A., 2006. "Unemployment duration in Germany : individual and regional determinants of local job finding, migration and subsidized employment," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-92, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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