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Short- and Long-Term Unemployment. A Parametric Model with Time-Varying Effects

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  • Portugal, Pedro
  • Addison, John T

Abstract

In this paper we present the first application to unemployment duration analysis of a mixture distribution model, initially proposed in the biosciences literature by Blackstone, Naftel, and Turner (1986). The model is characterized by the decomposition of the aggregate hazard function into a number of distinct hazard functions. The approach allows us to attribute to each function a different set of covariates as well as coefficients Using U.S. data on displaced workers, we are able successfully to decompose the time varying hazard into two distinct phases - corresponding to short-term and long-term unemployment - and in the process evaluate (and reject) the proportionality assumption. We also compare the results from the model with those obtained from the Cox proportional hazards model and with a parametric hazards model in which a Burr specification is employed for the baseline hazard. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Portugal, Pedro & Addison, John T, 1995. "Short- and Long-Term Unemployment. A Parametric Model with Time-Varying Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 205-227, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:57:y:1995:i:2:p:205-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 1998. "Capital shortages and asymmetries in UK unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 189-204, June.
    2. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Unemployment Duration Competing and Defective Risks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
    3. T. Addison, John & Portugal, Pedro, 1998. "Some specification issues in unemployment duration analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 53-66, March.

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