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Determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine

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  • Kupets Olga

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Abstract

This paper presents first evidence on the determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine between 1997 and 2003, using individual-level data from the first wave of the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS -2003). It investigates the conditional probability of an individual leaving unemployment to employment or economic inactivity in any particular month of his spell out of work by estimating it in a discrete time independent competing risks framework with flexible baseline hazard rates and gamma-distributed unobserved heterogeneity. The results in all specifications indicate no significant effect of receiving unemployment benefits but significant negative effect of having income from casual activities, subsidiary farming, household income or pension on the hazard of re-employment. Multivariate analysis also suggests that policies to reduce long-term unemployment should focus on older workers, less educated individuals, residents of small towns and rural area in the regions with relatively high unemployment rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 05-01e.

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Date of creation: 28 Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:05-01e

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Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 13, Yakira Str., suite 332, Kyiv, 04119 Ukraine
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Related research

Keywords: Ukraine; long-term unemployment; unemployment insurance; Ukraine; semiparametric duration analysis; flexible baseline hazard;

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References

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  1. J David Brown & John S Earle, 2006. "Job Reallocation and Productivity Growth in the Ukrainian Transition," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 229-251, June.
  2. Irina Denisova, 2001. "Staying Longer on Unemployment Register in Russia: Lack of Education, Bad Luck or Something Else?," Working Papers w0017, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR), revised Nov 2002.
  3. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 81, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Tito Boeri, 1999. "Transition with Labour Supply," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 274, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Foley, M.C., 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Papers 779, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  6. Grogan, Louise & Berg, Gerard J. van den, 1999. "The duration of unemployment in Russia," Serie Research Memoranda 0015, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  7. Gillian Paull, 2002. "Biases in the reporting of labour market dynamics," IFS Working Papers W02/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  8. Devine, Theresa J. & Kiefer, Nicolas M., 1991. "Empirical Labor Economics: The Search Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195059366.
  9. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Unemployment Duration Competing and Defective Risks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
  10. Sabirianova, Klara Z., 2002. "The Great Human Capital Reallocation: A Study of Occupational Mobility in Transitional Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 191-217, March.
  11. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
  12. Jennifer Hunt, 1992. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 50, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  13. Kupets Olga, 2005. "Determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 05-01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  14. John Ham & Jan Svejnar & Katherine Terrell, 1998. "Unemployment and the Social Safety Net During Transitions to a Market Economy: Evidence from the Czech and Slovak Republic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 169, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  15. Earle, John S. & Pauna, Catalin, 1996. "Incidence and duration of unemployment in Romania," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 829-837, April.
  16. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Working Papers 779, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  17. Atkinson, Anthony B & Micklewright, John, 1991. "Unemployment Compensation and Labor Market Transitions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1679-1727, December.
  18. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
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