To investigate the trends in wages in Spain in 1994-1999, we propose a flexible estimator of conditional distributions. The estimator, based on a piecewise-linear specification of the conditional hazard function, allows us to capture almost any underlying relationship and is unaffected by the curse of dimensionality. Our results reveal that the main changes in the labor market involved graduate workers entering the labor market: the ¿overeducation¿ phenomenon intensified in Spain between 1994 and 1999, provoking a decrease in returns to schooling at higher levels of education. En este trabajo proponemos analizar la evolución de los salarios en España entre 1994 y 1999 utilizando un estimador flexible de las distribuciones condicionales. Este estimador, basado en una especificación lineal a tramos de la función de razón de fallo condicional, permite captar casi cualquier relación subyacente, y no se ve afectado por la maldición de la dimensionalidad. Los resultados que obtenemos muestran que los cambios más importantes en el mercado laboral se han producido en el grupo de los trabajadores con estudios superiores que entran al mercado laboral. En concreto, se observa que el fenómeno de “sobreeducación” se intensificó en España entre 1994 y 1999, provocando un descenso de los rendimientos de la educación en los niveles de educación superiores.
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Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number
2005-04.
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