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Crop-Based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty

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  • Mallory, M.
  • Hayes, Dermot J.
  • Babcock, Bruce A.

Abstract

This paper examines the role of uncertaincrude oil prices, uncertain crop yields, andcompetition for acreage on corn, soybean, andswitchgrass prices under biofuel production mandates.We find enforcement of the cellulosic mandateis costly in that it raises equilibrium prices of all threecrops through competition for acreage. However,crude oil prices largely determine industry profitabilityeven in the face of high crop prices. Further wefind that uncertainty in crude oil prices and cropyields causes higher corn, soybean, and switchgrassprices compared to a baseline with no uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Mallory, M. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "Crop-Based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32439, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:32439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Basak Bayramoglu & Jean-François Jacques, 2016. "The economic and environmental effects of a biofuel mandate policy: the case of France [Les effets économiques et environnementaux d’une politique d’incorporation obligatoire de biocarburants : le ," Post-Print hal-02877013, HAL.
    2. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2017. "Production and spatial distribution of switchgrass and miscanthus in the United States under uncertainty and sunk cost," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 300-314.
    3. Hyunseok Kim & GianCarlo Moschini, 2018. "The Dynamics of Supply: U.S. Corn and Soybeans in the Biofuel Era," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(4), pages 593-613.
    4. Dumortier, Jerome, 2013. "Co-firing in coal power plants and its impact on biomass feedstock availability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-405.
    5. Song, Jingyu & Delgado, Michael & Preckel, Paul & Villoria, Nelson, 2016. "Pixel Level Cropland Allocation and Marginal Impacts of Biophysical Factors," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235327, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Dumortier, Jerome, 2015. "Impact of agronomic uncertainty in biomass production and endogenous commodity prices on cellulosic biofuel feedstock composition," IU SPEA AgEcon Papers 198707, Indiana University, IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs.
    7. Dumortier, Jerome, 2014. "Impact of different bioenergy crop yield estimates on the cellulosic ethanol feedstock mix," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 171168, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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