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Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market

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Author Info
Satheesh V. Aradhyula
Matthew T. Holt

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Abstract

This study examines the empirical implications of extending the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) to include price uncertainty. Unlike previous studies, a general estimation framework that incorporates both the restrictions on structural parameters and the variance-covariance terms is developed. A new time series approach known as GARCH processes is also used to generate time-varying expectations of both the means and the variances of exogenous variables in the REH model with risk. The empirical application is with a quarterly model of the U.S. broiler industry; the results indicate that the rational expectation of price variance is an important determinant of broiler supply. Additionally, a formal test indicates that the restrictions implied by the REH cannot be rejected. The restricted model also compares favorably with an unrestricted version that uses instruments for the mean and the variance of expected prices.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number 88-wp33.

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Date of creation: Jul 1988
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Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:88-wp33

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  1. Carter, Joy & Maynard, Leigh J. & Dillon, Carl R., 2000. "Perfect Cross-Hedging Opportunities Via Formula Pricing: The Case Of The Broiler Industry," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21765, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  2. Willett, Lois Schertz, 1991. "An Application Of The Rational Expectations Hypothesis In The U.S. Beekeeping Industry," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 20(2), October. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kapombe, Crispin M. & Colyer, Dale, 1998. "Modeling U.S. Broiler Supply Response: A Structural Time Series Approach," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 27(2), October. [Downloadable!]
  4. Baker, Mindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2008. "Crop-Based Biofuel Production under Acreage Constraints and Uncertainty," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6352, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Mbaga, Msafiri & Coyle, Barry T., 2003. "Beef Supply Response Under Uncertainty: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(03), December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Colyer, Dale, 2000. "A Comparison Of Annual, Quarterly And Monthly Turkey Export Models," Conference Papers 19106, West Virginia University, Department of Agricultural Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Vukina, Tomislav, 2001. "Vertical Integration And Contracting In The U.S. Poultry Sector," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 32(02), July. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rulon Pope & Jeffrey LaFrance & Richard E. Just, 2007. "Agricultural Arbitrage and Risk Preferences," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 1041, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Aradhyula, Satheesh V. & Holt, Matthew T., 1988. "Garch Time-Series Models: An Application To Retail Livestock Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(02), December. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Mendoza, Meyra S. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Brorsen, Wade, 1992. "Aggregate Corn Area Response Under Risk: Some Implications for Price Stabilization Programs," Philippine Journal of Development, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, vol. 0(2), pages 99-111. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marsh, John M., 2007. "Cross-Sector Relationships Between the Corn Feed Grains and Livestock and Poultry Economies," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), April. [Downloadable!]
  12. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review Of Alternative Expectations Regimes In Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, And Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(2), October. [Downloadable!]
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