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Crop-Based Biofuel Production under Acreage Constraints and Uncertainty Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Mindy L. Baker
Dermot J. Hayes () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) )
Bruce A. Babcock () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) )
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A myriad of policy issues and questions revolve around understanding the bioeconomy. To gain insight, we develop a stochastic and dynamic general equilibrium model and capture the uncertain nature of key variables such as crude oil prices and commodity yields. We also incorporate acreage limitations on key feedstocks such as corn, soybeans, and switchgrass. We make standard assumptions that investors are rational and engage in biofuel production only if returns exceed what they can expect to earn from alternative investments. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates the use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, with significant requirements for cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel production. We calculate the level of tax credits required to stimulate this level of production. Subsidies of nearly $2.50 per gallon to biodiesel and $1.86 per gallon to cellulosic biofuel were required, and long-run equilibrium commodity prices were high, with corn at $4.76 per bushel and soybeans at $13.01 per bushel. High commodity prices are due to intense competition for planted acres among the commodities.
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Paper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number
08-wp460.
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Date of creation: Feb 2008Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:08-wp460Contact details of provider: Postal: 578 Heady Hall, Ames, Iowa 50011-1070 Phone: (515) 294-1183 Fax: (515) 294-6336 Email: Web page: http://www.card.iastate.edu/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: biodiesel biofuels cellulosic dynamic ethanol general equilibrium Monte Carlo market. Other versions of this item:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Satheesh V. Aradhyula & Matthew T. Holt, 1988.
"Risk Behavior and Rational Expectations in the U.S. Broiler Market ,"
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications
88-wp33, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Rozakis, S. & Sourie, J. -C., 2005.
"Micro-economic modelling of biofuel system in France to determine tax exemption policy under uncertainty ,"
Energy Policy ,
Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 171-182, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2007.
"Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets ,"
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications
07-sr101, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Tokgoz, Simla & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Dong, Fengxia & Hart, Chad E. & Beghin, John C., 2007.
"Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets ,"
Staff General Research Papers
12812, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2007.
"Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets ,"
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications
07-sr101, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
[Downloadable!] Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Hart, Chad E., 2007.
"Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The ,"
Staff General Research Papers
12717, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
Other versions:
Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Chad E. Hart, 2006.
"Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The ,"
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications
06-bp49, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
[Downloadable!] Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Chad E. Hart, 2006.
"Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The ,"
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications
06-bp49, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
[Downloadable!] Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Hart, Chad E., 2006.
"Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The ,"
Staff General Research Papers
12692, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Paulson, Nicholas D. & Ginder, Roger, 2007.
"Growth and Direction of the Biodiesel Industry in the United States, The ,"
Staff General Research Papers
12813, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Eckstein, Zvi, 1984.
"A Rational Expectations Model of Agricultural Supply ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-19, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Nick D. Paulson & Roger G. Ginder, 2007.
"Growth and Direction of the Biodiesel Industry in the United States, The ,"
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications
07-wp448, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
[Downloadable!]
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