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The Effect of Transport Policies on Car Use: Theory and Evidence from Latin American Cities

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  • Francisco Gallego
  • Juan-Pablo Montero
  • Christian Salas

Abstract

In an effort to reduce air pollution and congestion, Latin American cities have experimented with different policies to persuade drivers to give up their cars in favor of public transport. Two notable examples are the driving restriction program introduced in Mexico-City in November of 1989 –Hoy-No-Circula (HNC)– and the public transport reform carried out in Santiago in February of 2007 –Transantiago (TS). We develop a simple model of car use and ownership, and show that policies that may appear effective in the short run can be highly detrimental in the long run, i.e., after households have adjusted their stock of vehicles. Based on hourly concentration records of carbon monoxide, which comes primarily from vehicles exhaust, we find that household’s responses to both HNC and TS have been remarkably similar and consistent with the above: an expected short-run response followed by a rapid (before 11 months) increase in the stock of vehicles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 407.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:407

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Keywords: Public transport; driving restrictions; car use; air pollution; transport policies;

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References

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  1. Lucas W. Davis, 2008. "The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(1), pages 38-81, 02.
  2. Eskeland, Gunnar S & Feyzioglu, Tarhan, 1997. "Rationing Can Backfire: The "Day without a Car" in Mexico City," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 383-408, September.
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  13. Caffera, Marcelo, 2011. "The use of economic instruments for pollution control in Latin America: lessons for future policy design," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 247-273, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Eugenio Figueroa & Andrés Gómez-Lobo & Pablo Jorquera & Felipe Labrín, 2012. "Develando econométricamente los impactos del Transantiago en la contaminación atmosférica de Santiago de Chile," Working Papers wp355, University of Chile, Department of Economics.

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