IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ime/imedps/13-e-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Naohisa Hirakata

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (currently, Financial System and Bank Examination Department), Bank of Japan (E-mail: naohisa.hirakata@boj.or.jp))

  • Takushi Kurozumi

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: takushi.kurozumi@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

In the wake of the gGreat Recession h of 2007-09, recent studies have emphasized the importance of the ginternational finance multiplier (IFM) h mechanism for inter- national business cycles, using calibrated two-country models. This paper develops and estimates a two- country model with the IFM mechanism using 21 time series from the Euro Area (EA) and the US. The estimation results show that during the past quarter-century, EA shocks to the external finance premium and net worth not only had a considerable effect on the EA economy together with an EA neutral technology shock, but also were transmitted to the US through the IFM mechanism and had a great impact on the US economy together with a US marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shock. The rate of EA neutral technological change and the US MEI shock then have strong correlations with lending attitudes of banks in the EA and the US, and thus the EA neutral technology shock and the US MEI shock are likely to represent disturbances to the banking sectors in the EA and the US. These findings therefore demonstrate that financial factors are important sources of EA and US business cycle fluctuations over the past quarter-century.

Suggested Citation

  • Naohisa Hirakata & Takushi Kurozumi, 2013. "The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:13-e-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/13-E-12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Queraltó, 2013. "A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Khan, Hashmat & Tsoukalas, John, 2011. "Investment shocks and the comovement problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-130, January.
    3. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
    4. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    5. Hirose, Yasuo, 2013. "Monetary Policy And Sunspot Fluctuations In The United States And The Euro Area," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, January.
    6. Benjamin Moll, 2014. "Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3186-3221, October.
    7. Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 71-105, September.
    8. Hirakata, Naohisa & Sudo, Nao & Ueda, Kozo, 2011. "Do banking shocks matter for the U.S. economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2042-2063.
    9. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    10. Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Stochastic Growth In The United States And Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, February.
    11. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Country portfolio dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1325-1342, July.
    12. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
    13. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    15. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 156-171, March.
    16. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    18. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    19. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2011. "Country Portfolios In Open Economy Macro‐Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 337-369, April.
    20. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Juillard, Michel & Karamé, Fréderic & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Mutschler, Willi & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébasti, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Mar 2021.
    21. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    22. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta, Vicente, 2010. "Euro-dollar real exchange rate dynamics in an estimated two-country model: An assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 780-797, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    2. Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
    3. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
    4. Dey, Jaya, 2017. "The Role Of Investment-Specific Technology Shocks In Driving International Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 555-598, April.
    5. Dey, Jaya, 2013. "The role of investment-specific technology shocks in driving international business cycles: a bayesian approach," MPRA Paper 57803, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Aug 2014.
    6. Dey, Jaya & Tsai, Yi-Chan, 2017. "Explaining the durable goods co-movement puzzle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 75-99.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    9. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    10. Kilponen, Juha & Orjasniemi, Seppo & Ripatti, Antti & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "The Aino 2.0 model," Research Discussion Papers 16/2016, Bank of Finland.
    11. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 208-230, May.
    12. Dey, Jaya, 2014. "Evaluating monetary policy under preferences with zero wealth effect: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 209-234.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    14. Dey, Jaya & Tsai, Yi-Chan, 2012. "Explaining the durable goods co-movement puzzle with non-separable preferences: a bayesian approach," MPRA Paper 57805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    16. Hirakata, Naohisa & Sudo, Nao & Takei, Ikuo & Ueda, Kozo, 2016. "Japan's financial crises and lost decades," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 31-46.
    17. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    18. Tatiana Kirsanova & Stephanus le Roux, 2013. "Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 99-152, December.
    19. Lorenzo Burlon & Paolo D'Imperio, 2019. "The euro-area output gap through the lens of a DSGE model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 477, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Duncan, Alfred J. M. & Nolan, Charles, 2019. "Disputes, debt and equity," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.
    21. Moyen, Stephane & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2005. "Incorporating labour market frictions into an optimising-based monetary policy model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 159-186, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle fluctuations; International finance multiplier mechanism; Financial accelerator mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:13-e-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kinken (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.