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Institutional Uncertainty and European Social Union: Impacts on Job Creation and Destruction in the CEECs

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Ansgar Belke
Matthias Göcke
Martin Hebler

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Abstract

With the extension of its competence for social policy legislation in the Maastricht and Amsterdam treaties, the EU has adopted a significantly new social dimension in the past ten years. According to the Copenhagen criteria, the CEEC candidate countries have to adopt the former via the acquis communautaire. This paper discusses the effect of an adoption of this EU social law on future labor market performance in the CEECs. For this purpose, we model and investigate the impact of institutional uncertainty (and of its elimination) on job creation and job destruction in the CEEC candidate countries. We conclude that structural change on CEEC labor markets tends to be fostered via reducing institutional uncertainty. However, these kinds of benefits of the adoption of the acquis have to be weighed against the danger that the adoption of inefficient EU social and labor policy regulations imposed by the acquis might also entail significant risks for employment in the CEECs similar to those which have materialized in the former EU. This rather pessimistic view can be substantiated based on a public choice analysis of why the old EU members will want to impose the Social Charter even though it will harm the new members. These risks consist of a significant increase in hiring and firing costs and of higher wage rates. Based on a simple option value analysis, we investigate and evaluate the trade-off between lower institutional uncertainty and higher employment costs induced by the adoption of the acquis.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany in its series Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim with number 228/2003.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:228

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  7. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2002. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Guiso, L. & Parigi, G., 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," Papers 289, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  9. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Belke, Ansgar & Gocke, Matthias, 1999. "A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 260-86, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Belke, Ansgar & Bordon, Ingo & Melnykovska, Inna & Schweickert, Rainer, 2009. "Prospective NATO or EU Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 4483, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective NATO or EU Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0131, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1562, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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