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Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?

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  • Belke, Ansgar

    ()
    (University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Göcke, Matthias

    ()
    (University of Münster)

Abstract

In a baseline micro model a band of inaction due to hiring- and firing-costs is widened by option value effects of exchange rate uncertainty. Based on this micro foundation an aggregation approach is presented. Under uncertainty, intervals of weak response to exchange rate reversals (called 'play' areas) are introduced on the macro-level. 'Spurts' in new employment or firing may occur after an initially weak response. Since these mechanisms may apply to other "investment" cases where the aggregation of microeconomic real options effects under uncertainty are relevant, they may even be of a more general interest.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1126.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: German Economic Review, 2005, 6 (2), 185-203
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1126

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Keywords: exchange rate uncertainty; employment hysteresis; aggregation; real options;

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References

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  7. Cross, Rod, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Discontinuous Adjustment: Selective Memory of Non-dominated Extrema," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 212-21, May.
  8. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
  9. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
  10. Laura Piscitelli, . "A Test for Strong Hysteresis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 2, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-13, November.
  12. Bentolila, Samuel & Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad Is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402, July.
  13. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
  14. Gocke, Matthias, 2002. " Various Concepts of Hysteresis Applied in Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 167-88, April.
  15. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
  16. Amable, Bruno & Henry, Jerome & Lordon, Frederic & Topol, Richard, 1994. "Strong hysteresis versus zero-root dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 43-47.
  17. Belke, Ansgar & Gocke, Matthias, 1999. "A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 260-86, August.
  18. Belke, A. & Gros, D., 1998. "Evidence on the Costs of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability," Discussion Paper 1998-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Bayer & Falko Jü�en, 2007. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 510-535, November.
  2. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, 02.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt?: The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 943, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Göcke, Matthias, 2013. "Play-Hysteresis in Supply as Part of a Market Model," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79695, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2012. "Doomsday for the Euro Area: Causes, Variants and Consequences of Breakup," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, July.
  6. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
  7. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2014. "Exports and Capacity Constraints: A smooth transition regression model for six euro-area countries," CEPS Papers 9228, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  8. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Beyond Trade – Is Reform Effort Affected by the Exchange Rate Regime? A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 29-58.
  9. Ansgar Belke & Anne Oeking & Ralph Setzer, 2013. "Exports and Capacity Constraints – A Smooth Transition Regression Model for Six Euro Area Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0449, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  10. Göcke, Matthias, 2012. "Play-hysteresis in supply as part of a market model," Discussion Papers 61, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
  11. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0468, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  12. Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
  13. Demir, Firat, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1127-1140, August.

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