When Does It Hurt?: The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports
AbstractThis paper deals with the impact of the $/EUR exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our main aim is to identify "pain thresholds" for German exporters. We rely on a non-linear model according to which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR go beyond a kind of "play" area (analogous to a mechanical play). We implement an algorithm describing play-hysteresis into a regression framework. A unique "pain threshold" of the $/EUR exchange rate does not exist, since the borders of the play area and, thus, also the "pain threshold" (as the upper border) depend on the historical path of the whole process. We come up with an estimate of a play area width of 24 US dollar cent per euro. At the end of our estimation period, the previous exchange rate movements had shifted the upper bound of the play area to about 1.55 US dollar per euro. In our interpretation, this is the current "pain threshold", where a strong spurt reaction of exports to a furtherappreciation of the euro is expected to start.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 943.
Length: 36 : Anh. p.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
exchange rate movements; play hysteresis; modelling techniques; switching regression; export demand;
Other versions of this item:
- Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Guenther, Martin, 2009. "When does it hurt? The exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports," Discussion Papers 45, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Goecke & Martin Guenther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt? The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Ruhr Economic Papers 0148, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2009-11-14 (European Economics)
- NEP-INT-2009-11-14 (International Trade)
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