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Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US

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  • Verheyen, Florian

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of bilateral exports to the US for twelve EMU countries. Although export demand functions have been studied for at least seventy years of time, the issue of nonlinearity in export demand equations has been benignantly neglected in time series econometrics so far. Accordingly, this paper fills this gap and figures out if exports react to exchange rate changes in a nonlinear fashion. To tackle this issue, we apply the newly developed nonlinear ARDL bounds testing approach of Shin et al. (2011) and find that disregarding nonlinearities might be too restrictive. Our evidence points to the fact that exports react differently to appreciations and depreciations. More precisely, it seems as if exports respond stronger to depreciations than to appreciations. Evidence in favor of hysteresis is less robust.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 66-76

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:66-76

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Export demand; EMU; US; Cointegration; Nonlinearity;

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References

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  1. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Guenther, 2012. "Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations," Ruhr Economic Papers 0327, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
  3. Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, 06.
  4. Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
  5. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
  6. Campa, Jose M., 2000. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," IESE Research Papers D/427, IESE Business School.
  7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Orhan Kara, 2003. "Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 293-308.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  9. I. Agur, 2003. "Trade-volume hysteresis: an investigation using aggregate data," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 740, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  10. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
  12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, September.
  13. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Goecke & Martin Guenther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt? The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Ruhr Economic Papers 0148, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  14. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  15. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Hysteresis in Trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-42.
  16. Thomas Klitgaard, 1999. "Exchange rates and profit margins: the case of Japanese exporters," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 41-54.
  17. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
  18. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2004. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," IZA Discussion Papers 1126, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. Bruno Coric & Geoff Pugh, 2010. "The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2631-2644.
  20. Saten Kumar, 2011. "Estimating export demand equations in selected Asian countriess," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 5-16, February.
  21. B. Bhaskara Rao & Rup Singh, 2007. "Estimating export equations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 799-802.
  22. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar, 2009. "Structural change in the export demand function for Indonesia: Estimation, analysis and policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 260-271.
  23. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2011. "Asymmetric Price Impacts of Order Flow on Exchange Rate Dynamics," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  25. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0468, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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