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Structural change in the export demand function for Indonesia: Estimation, analysis and policy implications

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  • Hossain, Akhand Akhtar

Abstract

This paper investigates the aggregate export demand behaviour in Indonesia with annual data for the period 1963-2005. Both the Pesaran bounds testing and the Johansen cointegration tests results suggest that there exists a long-run relationship between real exports, world income and the relative export prices in Indonesia. The long-run income elasticity of the demand for Indonesia's exports is significantly greater than one and the long-run relative export price elasticity of the demand for its exports is significantly lower than one. The recursive and rolling regressions and the Hansen-Johansen stability test results suggest that the export demand function for Indonesia has undergone a significant structural change since the late-1990s, which is reflected in the decrease of the income elasticity, and an increase in the relative export price elasticity, of demand for Indonesian exports. These results explain the relatively slow growth of Indonesian exports since 2000 that has slowed the country's economic recovery from the financial crises of 1997-1998.

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  • Hossain, Akhand Akhtar, 2009. "Structural change in the export demand function for Indonesia: Estimation, analysis and policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 260-271.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:260-271
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zheng, Zijuan & Saghaian, Sayed H. & Reed, Michael R., 2012. "Factors Affecting the Export Demand for U.S. Pistachios," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
    4. Soltani, Mohammad & Saghaian, Sayed H., 2012. "Export Demand Function Estimation for U.S. Raisins," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119860, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Hasara Rathnasekara & Madhavie Herath & Shyama Ratnasiri & Ranjika Walisinghe, 2017. "Demand for seafood exports in Sri Lanka: Has Sri Lanka gained competitiveness after civil war," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201703, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    6. Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The stability of German export demand equations – have German exports suffered from the strength of the euro?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 529-548, December.
    7. Bolaji Adesola Adesoye, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Export Demand in Nigeria," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(36), pages 122-130, May.
    8. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The effect of global financial crisis on trade elasticities: Evidence from BRIICS countries and Turkey," MPRA Paper 54659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak, 2022. "Determinants for international competitiveness of the food industry in 43 countries worldwide: evidence from panel models," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(3), pages 635-667, September.
    10. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "Exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-25, June.
    11. Saghaian, Yasser & Reed, Michael & Saghaian, Sayed, 2014. "Export Demand Estimation for U.S. Corn and Soybeans to Major Destinations," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162546, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. Lavee, Doron & Beniad, Gilat & Moshe-Jantzis, Moran, 2013. "Israel's foreign trade policy: The benefits of its reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 255-270.
    13. Eliphas Ndou, 2021. "Exchange rate changes, price level and the income effects on trade balance in South Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-19, February.
    14. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.

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