Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Structural change in the export demand function for Indonesia: Estimation, analysis and policy implications

Contents:

Author Info

  • Hossain, Akhand Akhtar

Abstract

This paper investigates the aggregate export demand behaviour in Indonesia with annual data for the period 1963-2005. Both the Pesaran bounds testing and the Johansen cointegration tests results suggest that there exists a long-run relationship between real exports, world income and the relative export prices in Indonesia. The long-run income elasticity of the demand for Indonesia's exports is significantly greater than one and the long-run relative export price elasticity of the demand for its exports is significantly lower than one. The recursive and rolling regressions and the Hansen-Johansen stability test results suggest that the export demand function for Indonesia has undergone a significant structural change since the late-1990s, which is reflected in the decrease of the income elasticity, and an increase in the relative export price elasticity, of demand for Indonesian exports. These results explain the relatively slow growth of Indonesian exports since 2000 that has slowed the country's economic recovery from the financial crises of 1997-1998.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V82-4SVV8D7-1/2/81df292c35216e51f32a7e3d4991d18e
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 260-271

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:260-271

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

Related research

Keywords: Export demand Cointegration Bounds testing Indonesia;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Stevenson, Andrew A & Montagna, Catia, 1995. "Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 147-55, February.
  2. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Sources of Variations Between The Inflation Rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia During The Post-1997 Crisis," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-29, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  3. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Matsubayashi, Yoichi, 2001. "An empirical analysis on the stability of Japan's aggregate import demand function," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 135-144, April.
  4. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2000. "A Reassessment of Long-Run Elasticities of Japanese Import Demand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 625-639, September.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
  7. Augustine C. Arize, 2001. "Traditional export demand relation and parameter instability: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(6), pages 378-396, October.
  8. Singh, Tarlok, 2002. "India's trade balance: the role of income and exchange rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 437-452, August.
  9. Abbas Valadkhani, 2002. "Modelling Demand for Broad Money in Australia," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 120, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
  12. Hadi Soesastro & M. Chatib Basri, 2005. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy in Indonesia," Trade Working Papers 22033, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
  14. William James & David Ray & Peter Minor, 2003. "Indonesia'S Textiles And Apparel: The Challenges Ahead," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 93-103.
  15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Soltani, Mohammad & Saghaian, Sayed H., 2012. "Export Demand Function Estimation for U.S. Raisins," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119860, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  2. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The effect of global financial crisis on trade elasticities: Evidence from BRIICS countries and Turkey," MPRA Paper 54659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Zheng, Zijuan & Saghaian, Sayed H. & Reed, Michael R., 2012. "Factors Affecting the Export Demand for U.S. Pistachios," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 15(3).
  4. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
  5. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:260-271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.