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Traditional export demand relation and parameter instability: An empirical investigation

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  • Augustine C. Arize
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    Abstract

    Applies new tests for parameter instability in cointegrated models to evaluate the traditional export demand function. The determinants of exports considered are world real income, export price and competitors’ export price. The data for Singapore (a newly industrializing economy), from 1973-1997, are used as a case study. Results suggest that Singapore does not satisfy the conditions of a small, price-taking country in world trade. Irrespective of whether one normalizes export demand function by price or quantity, the state of external demand appears to be a key ingredient in Singapore’s export growth. This finding differs markedly from Riedel’s evidence. It is found that the estimation of Singapore’s export demand model requires the inclusion of some dummy variables in order to achieve not only cointegration but also long-run parameter stability. However, once the structural breaks are accounted for, a stable relation is found, which resists a series of specification tests.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 6 (October)
    Pages: 378-396

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    Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:28:y:2001:i:6:p:378-396

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    Related research

    Keywords: Cointegration; Demand; Export; Model; Singapore;

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    Cited by:
    1. Shigeyuki, Hamori & Yoichi, Matsubayashi, 2009. "Empirical Analysis of Export Demand Behavior of LDCs: Panel Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 17316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Haoatai, Heinarii & Monypenny, Richard, 2011. "Export demand for Tahitian black pearls," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 19.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2008. "Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 129-141, June.
    4. Nogueira, Lia & Chouinard, Hayley H., 2006. "The Effects of Reducing Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Barriers to Trade on the Washington State Apple Industry," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21433, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi & Eleonora Lorenzini, 2013. "Food Competition In World Markets: Some Evidence From A Panel Data Analysis Of Top Exporting Countries," DEM Working Papers Series 060, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar, 2010. "Monetary targeting for price stability in Bangladesh: How stable is its money demand function and the linkage between money supply growth and inflation?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 564-578, December.

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