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Doomsday for the Euro Area: Causes, Variants and Consequences of Breakup

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  • Ansgar Belke

    ()
    (Department for Macroeconomics, DIW Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany
    Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Universitätsstraße 12, 45117 Essen, Germany)

  • Florian Verheyen

    (Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Universitätsstraße 12, 45117 Essen, Germany)

Abstract

In this paper we describe the genesis of a doomsday scenario and discuss potential causes and motivations for a breakup of the euro area. For this purpose, we differentiate between the departure of weak and strong countries, and examine the impact of the reintroduction of a national currency on domestic debt, the domestic banking sector, EU membership and the freedom of trade. We also briefly analyze the social and political costs of the accompanying social disorder.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal International Journal of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 1 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 1-15

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Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:1-15:d:18753

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Related research

Keywords: banking crisis; debt crisis; exchange rates; euro; optimum currency area; secession;

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References

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  1. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt?: The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 943, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Break-up of Czechoslovakia," Transition Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  3. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2011. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3604, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2011. "Ramifi cations of Debt Restructuring on the Euro Area – The Example of Large European Economies’ Exposure to Greece," Ruhr Economic Papers 0273, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  5. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, 05.
  6. Barry Eichengreen, 2010. "The Breakup of the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 11-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2002. "Monetary integration in the Southern Cone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 323-349, December.
  8. Alcidi, Cinzia & Giovannini, Alessandro & Gros, Daniel, 2012. "‘Grexit’: Who would pay for it?," CEPS Papers 6977, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  9. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  11. Ansgar Belke & Barbara Styczynska, 2004. "The Allocation of Power in the Enlarged ECB Governing Council: An Assessment of the ECB Rotation Model," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 242/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
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